No Technical Solution: a Synopsis of the Race Problem in the United States

A technical solution may be defined as one that requires a change only in the techniques of the natural sciences, demanding little or nothing in the way of change in human values or ideas of morality.

Garrett Hardin (The Tragedy of the Commons)

The Problem in Two Parts

1. Race Differences

The three main races (whites, blacks and Oriental Asians) have developed in geographical independence for most of their history. Following the best current evidence,  the ancestors of modern Europeans and Orientals (Asians) probably left Africa some 100,000+ years ago, with the European/Asian split occurring about 40,000+ years ago. As a result, the three groups have developed largely independently in response to entirely different environments, where different traits were favored by natural selection.

Mean race differences in intelligence test scores have been known since the origin of testing over 90 years ago. The black/white mean difference in test scores in the US has remained at about 15-18 points, or one full standard deviation, throughout that period. The gap shows no signs of narrowing. As a result, only about 16% of blacks test at the median white level of IQ (100). These differences appear at the earliest ages of mental testing, currently about three years of age. The significance of the difference in mean scores is felt largely at the tails of the intelligence distribution (the normal "bell curve"). Only about 700 blacks in the 18 year-old national cohort each year have an IQ of 130 or higher, while some 130,000 or more whites do. On the low end, about 16% of blacks qualify as mentally retarded (70 and below) compared with about 2% of whites. In inner-city areas, the figure for blacks is probably over 25%. (In Africa, the differences are much greater - between 20 and 30 IQ points in most countries where tested).

Despite massive funding over 30+ years, no environmental program has yet been devised that has been shown to have a permanent effect in reducing the IQ/achievement difference. Recent studies show that, for example, the Head Start program actually works to accentuate the long-term achievement differences between the races. It seems unlikely at this stage that a magical X factor will be discovered that will change our understanding of the situation.

Many other differences besides intelligence impact individual outcomes and society. For example, blacks have better short-term memory than whites and out-compete whites in many sports. Despite being only about 12% of the population, blacks dominate professional basketball and football. Every major running record is held by someone of African descent. Even within the black population, differences in specific athletic abilities are apparent. East Africans excel at long distance running while West Africans dominate the short distance races. In the 100m, the 10-second barrier has been broken 134 times; in every case the runner was a West African or someone of West African ancestry.

In terms of health and health costs, blacks have much higher incidents of premature and multiple births, and among older blacks, much higher rates of dementia than whites. Older whites tend to have higher rates of depression than older blacks.

Intelligence and other natural race differences are such that blacks, whites, and Asians will always differ significantly (as groups) in outcomes, even when provided with identical resources. As cognitive abilities become increasingly more important in our highly technological society blacks, as a self-identified group, will fall further and further behind. The understandable phenomenon of successful blacks abandoning their communities will accentuate the perceived group differences.

2. The Political and Social Response

Egalitarians - mostly liberals, leftists, and evangelical Christians - have convinced most blacks, and many whites, that the lack of identical outcomes is a result of past and/or present discrimination. As a result, many blacks blame whites for their perceived failure, or "the system."

Many conservatives, particularly neo-conservatives, blame blacks. They accuse blacks of  failure to resist government intrusion, of failure to measure up to white standards. They argue that if blacks would only act and behave like whites they would have the same outcomes as whites. The result of this environmentalism is a tendency to blame the other race for some kind of inexplicable moral failure, or lack of leadership, ignoring the differences in mean IQ which predict the observed differences in behaviour.

Because of the prevalence of misconceptions about race, discrimination is presumed to exist whenever outcomes differ. However, because of race differences and the nature of our highly technological society, outcomes will always differ and are steadily diverging. There is firm evidence that the growth in overall black success peaked in about 1970 and has been relatively flat since then. Discrimination has been substantially reduced since 1970, but misconceptions about race encourage the belief that it is still widespread and even increasing.

The traditional national policies of assimilation and conformity have given way, largely via the impact of the 1960's, to the rise of multiculturalism, multi-racialism, and the politics of diversity. This has lead increasingly to "the twilight of common dreams," as former radical, Todd Gitlin, described it in his book by that name. This encourages many members of minority groups to act and behave in ways alien to traditional American society, leading to less success in dealings with whites, and increased antagonism.

There is a reign of fear among knowledgeable whites on the subject, since even mention of race differences has become prima-facie evidence that one is a racist, i.e. hates persons of other races. In such a climate it becomes very difficult to discuss the critical issue of race differences. One wag has referred to it as the "stinking dead rhino in the middle of the room" that everyone walks around and tries to ignore.

Predictions

Since whites and Asians have given much to assist blacks in achieving "equality," they are becoming increasingly displeased by race based black preferences (Affirmative Action). Legislated Affirmative Action will be eliminated as a result. Black outrage will increase.

Black unemployment is consistently more than double white unemployment and substantially higher in inner cities. This gap will grow considerably, as employment becomes more merit based and cognitively sensitive, especially in the higher-level jobs where high IQ is extremely important.

Black illegitimacy is now at about 67% and growing. About 33% of young black males currently have criminal records and are increasingly unavailable as husbands. For some communities this figure is over 60%. As a result, the marriage pool for black females is getting smaller; thus social pathology in the black community will increase as will black rage and white backlash. Over 50% of black women of childbearing age have never married.

Currently there is an annual net transfer of funds from whites to blacks  of about 75 billion and growing (not including the estimated 350 billion per year cost of Affirmative Action). Awareness of black "entitlement" has a massive potential for increasing white rage.

The decline of black admissions to the better colleges and graduate schools  will accelerate, as merit-based policies replace Affirmative Action. Because of the black mean IQ of about 85, only about 700 blacks in the 18 year old cohort per year will fall in the 130+ IQ range required for top research academics. About 21,000 per year are qualified for lesser institutions including two-year schools. The pool of black teachers and executives (already small) will decline even further. Historically-black colleges, which already employ mostly white professors, will suffer greatly as white schools outbid each other to retain token-black instructors.

As the outcomes increasingly diverge, we will see vastly increased racial polarization. Blacks will increasingly blame "racist whites" or "the racist system." Whites will grow angrier at increasingly baseless black accusations, at lack of black performance, and at the growing black welfare class. Increased globalization and immigration will accentuate these trends as whites see immigrants adjust to the increasingly technological society while blacks don't and as blacks see massive job loss in the traditional black job areas as jobs go to immigrants, who are seen as outsiders by them. The knowledge gained from the human genome project, and other research, will further reduce public support for failed egalitarian-environmentalist programs and policies. Proportionally, this loss will fall most heavily on blacks, though about as many whites in actual numbers will share the same fate, since the two populations in the US have about the same number of persons with IQs below 80.

Our current policies, including President Clinton's "racial dialogue," are doomed to failure because they refuse to recognize the driving cause of the "race problem" as natural human group differences as discussed in the first section on race differences. Our leaders are even reluctant to let moderate egalitarians like Stefan and Abigail Thernstrom (America in Black and White, 1997) participate, much less people who are actually knowledgeable of the significance of race differences. Acceptance of natural human group differences allows for an understanding of the nature of the problem and thus the potential for a solution. However, even with that, the emotionality of the participants and the appeal of blame will make a mutually friendly solution (if one could be found) extremely difficult, if not impossible.